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NCAAB Calibrations

This tool runs the NCAAB Calibration Protocol. It combines active-player efficiency, structural voids, foul-trap leverage, and paint dominance into a raw margin, then calibrates it for pace. Experimental research tool — your entered values may differ from the live values used for official picks, so manual scenarios are informational and are not official picks.

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Core Formula

MRaw = (PTeam A − PTeam B) − SV + FTI + PMD

Projected Spread = MRaw × (Expected Pace / Neutral Pace)

  • PTeam: bounded sum of active, adjusted player efficiency scores weighted by minutes.
  • SV: structural void penalty from missing/restricted rotation players.
  • FTI: foul-trap index from defensive foul rate versus free-throw rate.
  • PMD: paint margin differential plus perimeter efficiency geometry.

Input Calibrated Components

Team A active-court performance potential. Team B active-court performance potential. Total penalty from missing rotation players. Free-throw differential leverage.
Paint and perimeter scoring geometry edge. Projected possessions for this matchup. League-average or season-neutral pace.

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